Says operating environment for Indian corporate sector has improved during FY15
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Rating agency ICRA has warned economic growth may dip to 6.4 per cent during 2004-05, hinting that the "feel-good factor" would be temporary and over 8 per cent growth unsustainable.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Anaysts recommend a 'buy' on Icra due to its positive outlook.
Anaysts recommend a 'buy' on Icra due to its positive outlook.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
Credit rating agency ICRA on Tuesday lowered economic growth projection for the Indian economy to 6.3 per cent this fiscal from its earlier forecast of 6.5-6.7 per cent due to an expected fall in farm output. \n
Weak consumer sentiment across urban and rural markets due to slow farm inflows, subdued agri-commodity prices, rising cost of ownership as a result of regulatory changes including safety, emissions, vehicle registration, along with a rise in interest cost/EMI, have impacted demand.
Listed housing finance companies (HFCs), as a group, posted a 3.7 per cent drop in second-quarter (Q2) profit year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 5,830 crore and 19 per cent sequentially on rise in interest expenses and uptick in provisions and write-offs. Operating income rose 13.7 per cent YoY to Rs 54,086 crore in Q2 of 2022-23 (FY23). Sequentially, income was up 62.3 per cent, from Rs 33,331 crore in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021-22 (FY22).
The economy is slated to grow by 6.3 per cent over the financial year 2004-05 and accelerate to 6.8 per cent in the next fiscal, credit rating agency ICRA said on Tuesday.
India's economic growth slowed to near two-year low of 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of this fiscal due to poor performance of manufacturing and mining sectors, but the country continued to remain the fastest-growing large economy, data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 fiscal. The previous low level of GDP growth at 4.3 per cent was recorded in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of financial year 2022-23.
The forthcoming public issue by rating agency ICRA Ltd will see State Bank of India diluting its stake in the company by a nominal 0.21 per cent, but the meagre divestment has larger implications on both the entities.
Prices of various car models -- ranging from entry-level hatchbacks to high-end luxury offerings -- are set to rise as automakers have announced price hikes with effect from January. Carmakers cite an increase in input costs and operational expenses as the main reason to implement price increases from the next month. Industry experts, however, note that the exercise is also undertaken by automakers every year in December to shore up sales volume in the last month of the year, as customers postpone buyouts to later months to get the new year manufactured units.
The wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26 per cent in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been rising for two months in a row.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
Historically, there has been no correlation between growth in bank credit to industry and lower benchmark interest rate
Credit rating agency ICRA on Monday revised upwards its economic growth projection to 6.5-6.7 per cent following Budget announcements that are likely to boost investment in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
After a strong show during the September quarter (Q2FY25) and favourable demand conditions, going ahead, the country's largest player in the room air conditioner segment, Voltas is well placed to improve its market share. Expectations of record volumes in FY25 for the sector and the company's strategy of prioritising market share over margins could help the leader expand share in the room AC segment.
The government has slashed by up to a fifth the supplies of cheaper gas to city gas entities that retail CNG to automobiles, increasing their dependence in costly imported fuel. Buying costly imported gas to make up for the shortfall should result in a hike in CNG price but given the ensuing assembly elections in Maharashtra, that may be put off for now. Indraprastha Gas Ltd and Mahanagar Gas Ltd in regulatory filings stated that supplies of domestically produced gas, which was available at a capped rate which is half of the imported price, has been cut.
Tata Power's Q2FY25 reported results were above consensus despite challenges like low plant availability at Mundra and Odisha discom operations affected by rain. A positive development for the power major included module manufacturing hitting nearly 100 per cent capacity utilisation. The Board has approved an investment proposal for a 1GW pumped storage project (PSP).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
States' borrowing cost fell for the second consecutive week on Monday, with the weighted average cut-off easing by 4 bps to 7.67 per cent from 7.71 per cent in the last auction when it slid by 7 bps. The yield on the benchmark 10-year G-secs also declined in the week by 4 bps to 7.23 per cent from 7.27 per cent last Tuesday, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The weighted average cut-off of the 10-year state debt also eased to 7.61 per cent at Monday's auctions from 7.66 per cent last week.
ICRA's GDP forecast is higher than the 6.0 per cent projection made by the Reserve Bank of India and Asian Development Bank for this fiscal.\n\n\n\n
The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a 20-month low of 4 per cent in June this year due to a decline in the output of crude oil and refinery products, according to official data released on Wednesday. The core sectors' production grew by 6.4 per cent in May 2024. The growth of core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 8.4 per cent in June 2023.
Regulator wants to change NPA classification and hike capital requirement.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in March due to improvement in the output of crude oil, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Tuesday. In 2023-24, the growth rate in the output of these eight sectors was 7.5 per cent, marginally down from 7.8 per cent recorded in the year-ago period.
The eight key infrastructure sectors' growth rose by 6.3 per cent in May on healthy expansion in the production of coal, natural gas, and electricity, though the growth rate is lower than in April, according to official data released on Friday. The production of the eight sectors grew 6.7 per cent in April. The growth of these core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 5.2 per cent in May 2023.
The small finance bank model may still be testing the water some 10 years since its launch. According to banking experts, the regulator has taken a cautious approach in granting approvals. Unity Small Finance Bank was the last one to get a licence in the category in November 2021.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Credit rating agency ICRA disputed the official forecast of a lower 4.4 per cent growth in GDP, and said all indications in reality are that the economy was slated to grow by 5.4-5.5 per cent this fiscal.
Rating agency ICRA has picked up a 33 per cent stake in Online IndiaCapital.com, a Mumbai-based promoter of MutualFundsIndia.com, even as it is planning a special purpose vehicle for setting up a business process outsourcing unit.\n\n\n\n
Banks' gross non-performing assets (NPAs) and net NPAs are expected to rise to 10.1-10.6 per cent and 3.1-3.2 per cent, respectively by March 2021, Icra said on Monday. The agency also expects net NPA to decline to 2.4-2.6 per cent by March 2022. "As moratorium on loan repayments is over and though we await the Honourable Supreme Court directive on asset classification, the GNPAs and NNPAs for banks are likely to rise in near term to 10.1-10.6 per cent and 3.1-3.2 per cent, respectively by March 2021 from 7.9 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively as of September 2020," the rating agency said in a report.
Listing out priorities for the Finance Ministry under Arun Jaitley and the Narendra Modi government as a whole, it said the growth rate can pick up to 6 per cent with the extent and pace of reform measures.
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
India's economic growth slowed to a 15-month low of 6.7 per cent in April-June 2024-25, mainly due to poor performance of the agriculture and services sectors, government data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2022-23. India, however, remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.7 per cent growth in April-June 2024.
